tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23845276359031330632011-07-07T21:12:42.546-07:00Maggidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01922778308627968310noreply@blogger.comBlogger61100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2384527635903133063.post-87131375079542612352010-03-20T08:44:00.000-07:002010-03-20T10:10:05.835-07:00<div style="width: 490px; font-family: Georgia,Serif; background-color: white;">this is a test blog<br /><script language="javascript" type="text/javascript" src="http://sites.google.com/site/boooming/Home/country-default-prob.js"></script><br /> <br /> <br />Just checking if it is good<br /></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2384527635903133063-8713137507954261235?l=factuarial.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Maggidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01922778308627968310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2384527635903133063.post-57333299364250220612009-09-07T07:33:00.001-07:002009-09-07T07:33:21.083-07:00<div face="Georgia,Serif" style="width: 490px;"><a href="http://selfbetterment.50webs.com/SwineFlu/swine-flu-counter-2009-sept.html">Here</a> you'll find the September 2009 update of the<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);"><span style="font-size:130%;">Global Swine Flu Counter<br /></span></div><br /><div id="swineflutable"></div><br />Although there is still an increasing risk of underreporting, the counter has been renewed on basis of the last available global reports as provided by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak_timeline#cite_note-ecdc-0">Wikipedia/ECDC</a>.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Swine Flu under Control?</span><br />The September 2009 developments suggest the Swine Flu development is under control, as the reported infections changed from a exponential growth recent months, to more linear growth in August 2009. In September the increase of infections was already declining.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">New Model</span><br />The above developments are the main reason why data in the Swine Flu calculator have now been modelled by a logistic function.<br /><img style="margin: 0px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ebUbp_TZOIc/SqUFyN5sYiI/AAAAAAAAAtY/um2cyT0H-Xw/s1600/swine-flu-update-2009-09-06.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5378711690247168546" border="0" />Well considered curve fitting at <span style="font-weight: bold;"><a href="http://zunzun.com/">ZunZun</a></span>, showed a <a href="http://zunzun.com/Equation/2/Sigmoidal/Gompertz%20With%20Offset/">Gompertz function</a> (with offset) resulted in a satisfying approximation :<br /><br /><img src="http://www.sitmo.com/gg/latex/latex2png.2.php?z=120&amp;eq=I%28t%29%3Da.e%5E%7B%28-e%5E%7B%28b-c.t%29%7D%29%7D%2Bd" /><br /><br />Life actuaries will be familiar with good old <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Gompertz">Gompertz</a>. The Gompertz equations are - by the way - also used to model <a href="http://www.apsnet.org/phyto/PDFS/1981/Phyto71n07_716.pdf">Plant Desease Progres</a>.<br /><br />The number of death have now been modelled ruffly as 1.8% of the infected people a month earlier [Death=0.018*I(t-30)]<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ebUbp_TZOIc/SqT_c6NjDxI/AAAAAAAAAtQ/cJ8vg5gMOZ0/s1600-h/swine-flu-table-update-2009-9-06.png"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 181px; height: 400px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ebUbp_TZOIc/SqT_c6NjDxI/AAAAAAAAAtQ/cJ8vg5gMOZ0/s400/swine-flu-table-update-2009-9-06.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5378704727114714898" border="0" /></a><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(102, 0, 0);">Results update</span><br />The results the new approximation show that the number of reported infections increases asymptotically towards a limit of about 323,000.<br /><br />Correspondingly, the number of death, , increases to a limit of ruffly 6000.<br /><br />All provided the actual controlled development continues and no new mutation of the H1N1 will develop in the next months.....<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(102, 0, 0);">Risk</span><br />The risk of underreporting is not negligible . Modeling on basis of excluding the September data would result in a limit of 528,000 infects and about 9500 deaths. We'll just have to wait how H1N1 develops.....<br />But as becomes clear, the explosion of swine flue cases looks under control.<br /><br />If necessary, the counter will be updated again on a on a regular basis. The latest data you'll find in this <a href="http://sites.google.com/site/boooming/actuary/swine-flu-h1n1-statistics-2009-WHO">XLS spreadsheet</a>.<br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153);font-size:130%;" ><span style="font-weight: bold;">Install Swine Flu Counter</span></span><br />How to implement this Swine Flu Counter on your web site?<br /><ul style="margin: 3px 2px 3px 18px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(8, 34, 8);" type="square"><br /><li>Put the next HTML-script (without the outer quotes) just before the end of the body tag:' &lt;script language="javascript" type="text/javascript" src="http://sites.google.com/site/boooming/actuary/swine-flu-2009-update1.js"&gt; &lt;/script&gt;'<br /></li><br /><li>Put the next HTML-line (without the outer quotes) where you want the Swine Flu table to appear on your site :<br />' &lt;div id="swineflutable"&gt;&lt;/div&gt; '<br /><br /></li><li>Ready!</li></ul><br /></div><br /><script language="javascript" type="text/javascript" src="http://sites.google.com/site/boooming/actuary/swine-flu-2009-update1.js"></script><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2384527635903133063-5733329936425022061?l=factuarial.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Maggidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01922778308627968310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2384527635903133063.post-50088674666356271052008-11-15T10:36:00.000-08:002008-11-15T10:37:19.170-08:00<div><script language="javascript" type="text/javascript"> var _UserId="quYDroOoGAM%3d"; var _rows=5; var _cols=1; var _backcolor="#F1F1F1"; var _heading="default"; </script><script language="javascript" type="text/javascript" src="http://www.authorstream.com/Javascript/WidgetPPT.js"></script></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2384527635903133063-5008867466635627105?l=factuarial.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Maggidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01922778308627968310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2384527635903133063.post-91777663000742893932007-12-01T08:15:00.000-08:002008-11-15T22:02:16.272-08:00<img src="http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/5626/zazen2pd0.jpg" alt="Zazen2" border="0" /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2384527635903133063-9177766300074289393?l=factuarial.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Maggidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01922778308627968310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2384527635903133063.post-55088717881450503892007-10-06T12:40:00.000-07:002008-03-15T13:15:34.915-07:00testje<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2384527635903133063-5508871788145050389?l=factuarial.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Maggidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01922778308627968310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2384527635903133063.post-37846842155402786572007-08-31T11:02:00.000-07:002007-08-31T11:03:53.264-07:00Facts, links and information about the actuarial profession.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2384527635903133063-3784684215540278657?l=factuarial.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Maggidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01922778308627968310noreply@blogger.com0